The Week in 5
S&P 500: The index added +0.9% for the week while the Dow pulled back from Monday's record close above 53,000. A split tape — breadth narrowing, large-cap tech doing the heavy lifting.
SK Hynix raised $26.5 billion in its Nasdaq debut, the largest-ever US listing by a foreign company. Shares closed +13% on day one. The IPO window is wide open for Asian semiconductor names.
Meta surged roughly +14% this week — its best weekly performance since February 2024. The catalyst: an internal memo outlining an aggressive AI cost-structure plan that analysts read as a margin-expansion signal.
Oil fell to roughly $71.60/barrel despite renewed Iran tensions. The market is pricing supply resilience over geopolitical risk — for now.
Apple sued OpenAI and two former employees for trade-secret theft, noting that over 400 ex-Apple employees now work at OpenAI. The AI talent war just got litigated.
Next Week's Calendar
Tuesday, July 14
June CPI (8:30 AM ET) + Fed Chair Warsh testifies before Congress (10:00 AM ET)
The week's biggest collision: inflation print at 8:30, followed by Warsh's first-ever congressional testimony 90 minutes later. Markets will reprice rate expectations in real time.
Tuesday–Wednesday, July 14–15
Big-bank earnings: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Bank of America
Tuesday now features a triple-header: CPI + Warsh testimony + JPMorgan earnings. Net interest income guidance and loan-loss provisions will signal whether the credit cycle is softening.
Thursday, July 16 — TSMC. Mid-week — ASML
Semiconductor earnings: TSMC + ASML
The chip supply chain reports. SK Hynix's debut sets a high bar — these names will confirm whether the AI capex narrative holds through H2.
One Observation
This week exposed a tension that won't resolve quietly: the AI capex story is driving equity prices — Meta's cost memo, SK Hynix's debut, the chip supply chain's momentum — but the macro base is softening. Oil's slide despite geopolitical risk, the Dow's retreat from 53,000, and a Tuesday collision of CPI, Warsh's first testimony, and JPMorgan earnings all point to a market betting on structural tech growth while hedging against cyclical weakness. One of those bets is going to be wrong in the next 90 days.