Issue No. 2
The Week in 5
01 June CPI came in at 3.5% vs 3.8% estimate. Core cooled to 2.6%. Energy -5.7% did the heavy lifting. Markets jumped; September rate-cut odds surged.
02 IBM lost 25% in a single session — a deeper drop than Black Monday 1987. Q2 revenue: $17.2B vs $17.9B estimate. The legacy drag is still heavier than the AI tailwind.
03 TSMC raised 2026 capex to $60B–$64B (+15% from $52B–$56B), betting $4–8B more on AI chip demand while the rest of the semiconductor sector sold off. Sandisk fell 13% on Thursday.
04 SK Hynix completed the largest foreign IPO in US history ($26.5B, +13% day one) — then posted its largest-ever single-day drop in Seoul days later. The US-Asia valuation gap is the trade.
05 Microsoft plans to launch an AI security tool using models from Anthropic and OpenAI this month. Roblox launched AI-powered game creation on mobile phones. The AI product cycle is accelerating beyond the lab.
Next Week's Calendar
Mon, Jul 20
SAP SE earnings
Enterprise software demand check — a proxy for global IT spending.
Tue, Jul 21
Netflix · Bank of America · Charles Schwab earnings
Consumer spend + banking health + retail brokerage = three angles on the US consumer.
Wed, Jul 22
Tesla · IBM (final Q2) · FOMC minutes
Tesla delivery numbers, IBM's final Q2 print, and the Fed's June meeting notes — all on one day.
Thu, Jul 23
Amazon · Intel · Visa · US jobless claims
E-commerce, semiconductors, payments, and labor — the broadest macro snapshot of the week.
Fri, Jul 24
American Express · Verizon earnings
Credit card spending + telecom capex close the week.
One Observation
The chip sector is telling two stories at once. TSMC raised capex 15% on AI conviction. IBM collapsed 25% on legacy drag. SK Hynix had its best and worst day in the same week. This isn't a sector rotation — it's a sorting mechanism. The market is separating companies that sell AI compute from companies that use AI compute. The former are getting funded. The latter are getting fired. That gap will define the next 12 months of tech earnings.
Content is for informational and analytical purposes only — not investment, financial, or legal advice.